As a leader, you’re expected to have vision – not just for opportunities, but for risks too. But what happens when you see something concerning on the horizon, and you’re not sure it will materialize? Do you hesitate? You don’t want to be seen as that leader, the one who always sounds the alarm, the one others dismiss as overreacting.
You don’t want to be called Chicken Little.
And yet, spotting trouble early and having the courage to speak up are some of the most important leadership traits you can develop.
Reframing the Chicken Little Narrative
In the classic fable, Chicken Little believes the sky is falling after being hit by an acorn. He rushes off to warn the king, gathering others along the way. Depending on the version, the story ends in disaster … or vindication.
Whenever I think about that story, I remember all the times I have been told not to sound the alarm when something turns out to be inconsequential. But, that’s the wrong lesson to learn. The point wasn’t that Chicken Little was right or wrong. It’s that he took action when he believed something was wrong.
As a leader, you’ll face moments when you see emerging issues – like operational risks, reputational threats, culture cracks – but they’re not yet “crises.” You may question your instincts. You may wonder if raising a concern will damage your credibility.
But the real risk is saying nothing, and allowing a preventable issue to grow unchecked. If we think about medical tests — say, a cancer screening — we’d of course prefer the test to be accurate. However, we’d much rather it deliver a false positive than a false negative. False positives can be disproved with further testing. False negatives allow cancer to advance unchecked. False positives permit us to take preventive action. False negatives lead straight into treatment when the true result is finally revealed..
At the end of the day, we forgive false positives. We rue false negatives. We still want the “false” part to be a relatively small occurrence, but the stakes are simply too high to tolerate false negatives.
A Leadership Tool: The Consequence vs. Reversibility Matrix
To avoid both knee-jerk reactions and dangerous silences, smart leaders rely on decision-making frameworks. One especially useful tool is the Consequence vs. Reversibility Matrix. This matrix asks two simple questions:
- What are the consequences if we act (or don’t act)?
- How reversible are the consequences of our actions (or inactions)?
This framework naturally addresses the tension of false positives by clearly defining the stakes. By plotting your course of action along these two axes (High vs. Low Consequence, Reversible vs. Irreversible) you can quickly assess not only how urgently and forcefully to respond but also how grave the consequences might be if there were no response.
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Low Consequence + Reversible = Act Quickly. If the potential impact is small and can easily be undone – like adjusting messaging or reallocating internal resources – it’s worth taking the step. Even if you’re wrong, there’s little downside.
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Low Consequence + Irreversible = Quickly Decide to Wait and See. In these cases, the consequence of a false negative is relatively minor, and thus it can be addressed when/if it happens.
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High Consequence + Reversible = Err on the Side of Acting. If the potential impact is great and can be reversed – like standing down a response team or revising guidance to employees – it’s worth taking the step. Even if you’re wrong, any Chicken Little downside is minor compared to the consequences of a false negative.
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High Consequence + Irreversible = Deliberate Thoughtfully If the stakes are high and the action can’t be reversed, slowing down is wise. In the context of the Chicken Little story, don’t go straight to the king. You may still decide to proceed, but you’ll do so with full awareness and strategic intent.
This Consequence vs. Reversibility framework can help you separate signal from noise and brings clarity to tough decisions.
Instincts Matter—But Test Them
As a leader, your instincts are informed by experience. But even strong instincts benefit from structure. Tools like the Consequence vs. Reversibility Matrix don’t replace judgment –they reinforce it.
You will get it wrong sometimes. You will have false positives. You will have false negatives, too, but hopefully those are inconsequential, or at least nothing more than embarrassing (“Why didn’t you see this coming?”). Every leader does. But if your decisions are based on informed judgment, not fear or gut reaction, they will stand up to scrutiny.
You may occasionally be labeled Chicken Little. But being willing to raise concerns, ask hard questions, and speak uncomfortable truths is not alarmist – it’s leadership. Because when the sky might be falling, your voice could be the one that makes all the difference.
Kith facilitates crisis preparedness workshops that will help your company attain the clarity, trust, and strategic speed you need to respond confidently – no dithering! – to any crisis. We’d be happy to have a conversation about how we can help your company be ready to chart an effective course to reputation protection.
Looking for more fresh insights? Crisis of the Month is a no-fluff Substack that breaks down real-world crises and what they teach us about leadership, communication, and damage control. Whether you’re in comms, ops, or just crisis-curious, this is your monthly guide to what went wrong — and how to do it better. Sign up today!
